Socio-ecological considerations on the persistence of Mexican heirloom maize

Abstract

The vulnerability of 59 Mexican landraces of maize was assessed in relation to five socio-ecological factors, namely, social and economic marginalization, association with indigenous peoples, high biodiversity regions, environmental suitability for cultivation, and climate change effects. The most marginalized states had the highest number of landraces, 80% of which were found in predominantly or substantially indigenous municipalities. While only one third of 152 regions of high biodiversity had collection records, 47 landraces had at least one collection record in these regions. Eleven races can be cultivated in at least 10% of the Mexican territory, while 13 can occupy less than 1% under current environmental conditions. Given a projected temperature increase of 0.5 ºC and a 5% reduction in annual precipitation, 66% of the landraces could disappear during the current decade. A normalized Vulnerability Index was constructed (can have values from 0.00 for non-threatened landraces to 1.00 for the most vulnerable) that averaged 0.76 ± 0.02 for the 59 landraces. The most vulnerable third of the landraces were threatened by being from a region of low marginalization combined with a limited potential distribution both under current conditions and under the climate change scenario considered.