Research papers

Uncertainty assessment in climate change scenarios: a methodological proposal for management of forest ecosystem services


Abstract


The work introduces a method to quantify potential impact of climate change on cultural ecosystem services in forests. The technique of Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Term Set is applied to face with the uncertainty due to climate change as well as subjective opinion of forest experts. Two forest management scenario (current practices as well as climate change-oriented silviculture) are investigated for different time horizons. Results highlight the increasing uncertainty on climate change impact evaluation related to longer time horizons. Potential losses connected to current cultural ecosystem services provision are quantified from spatial as well as economic viewpoint. The method is tested for an illustrative example in the Tuscany region - central Italy.


Keywords

climate change-oriented silviculture; cultural ecosystem services; uncertainty evaluation

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12899/asr-1802

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Copyright (c) 2019 Sandro Sacchelli, Jacopo Bernetti, Augusto Marinelli

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